March Rise In House Prices Reversed

I don’t think any of us got too excited over the slight rise in house prices last month, though it was nice to see things headed in that direction for a change. It is just as well that most of us greeted the news with caution because Nationwide figures released last week show a 0.4% decline.

The good news is these same figures show that the pace of the decline in house prices has slowed.

No matter which way you cut it, though, houses are still worth 15% less on average than they were a year ago and for most people this is fairly grim news.

It is a very interesting fact, however, that the largest factor affecting your house price movement is location. The Land Registry released figures in March that make fascinating reading with typical property prices rising by 1.8% in the North East of the country but falling by 2% over the same period in the West Midlands.

In separate news, Nationwide were reasonably positive about some of the measures put in place by Chancellor Alistair Darling in the last budget but they still sounded a note of caution.

They do not believe that anything he announced would have the effect of a quick turnaround in the market. It seems that they, like most of us, continue to urge patience.

Have You Still Got a Long term View

There were some interesting statements made this week by the manager of Clarity Commercial, Chris Jenkins. And I must admit I agree with a lot of what he had to say.

The first thing he talked about was the way seasoned property landlords have a different take on things than the average person. He points to the number of these types of landlords who are continuing to expand their portfolio even as they are surrounded by doom and gloom news in the property sector.

Mr Jenkins claims this happens because experienced landlords are not panicked by the dire view of the immediate future. Most of these types of people are in this business for the long haul and realise that this time of low house prices is actually the ideal time to expand their property portfolio.

I agree with this view of things and assuming a landlord can get his hands on the necessary finance I think most experienced landlords recognise the soundness of this long term view.

The other point that Mr Jenkins made is that he believes that it is about time that the finance institutions of this country got their act together and made buy to let loans more readily available again. The lack of these loans is clearly, as I have discussed before, contributing to accidental landlords flooding this sector of the market.

Considering the fact that these financial institutions played a significant role in creating this mess in the first place it seems only fair that they help to drag us out of it. At the moment their policies seem to just be making things harder for buy to let landlords.

Letting Market Recovering but is there an Oversupply?

I have talked a lot about location being a prime factor in whether or not your local buy to let market is starting to show the very early signs of recovery. There is no doubt that this is important, but figures released this week by Findaproperty.com indicate that the type of property you own may be just as important.

According to their figures, the number of houses available to rent in the market fell in April for the second month in a row, in contrast the number of flats rose for the sixth consecutive month.

Clearly supply and demand dictates that these figures have an effect on rent rates and predictably, according to Findaproperty.com, rents for larger properties are up two months running while flats show a further 0.7% fall in average rents.

Andrew Smith, head of research at FindaProperty.com, said: “The UK has become a tale of two very different markets. House rentals are seeing the start of a recovery with declining supply rates and price rises for the largest family homes. In contrast, the flats market has seen a much deeper downturn, with rental prices falling for 13 consecutive months and supply levels continuing to increase.”

It would seem that the decrease in houses for rent is probably the result of people who had previously taken their houses off the sales list, returning to the market with more realistic expectations in terms of sales price, leading to an increase in sales of houses.

Flats on the other hand are traditionally the area favoured by first time buyers and buy to let landlords. These two groups of people are finding it very hard, in the current climate, to achieve mortgages so the flats remain on the rental market causing an oversupply.

Big Jump in Mature Student Tenants

This recession has had some effects on our business that I would just never have thought of. Buy-to-let mortgage specialist Paragon Mortgages are now reporting that there has been a huge leap in the number of mature students seeking rental accommodation.

Many people, as we all know have lost their jobs through no fault of their own when companies have been forced to downsize. Apparently a lot of them are using this opportunity to return to full time schooling and re train.

John Heron, managing director of Paragon Mortgages, said: “If individuals have been made redundant or are struggling to get a job they may see higher education as an attractive option.”

This is potentially very good news for the buy- to- let industry who has traditionally relied heavily on students to populate their properties. It can be a very desirable market to let to as the property often has higher yields because it it is let on a per room basis. Even better is the fact that Paragon claim students have lower void periods.

The fact that mature students are also more likely to run a car and therefore be prepared to travel further to get to university could also see the usual boundaries of student letting being extended outwards.

All the advantages of letting to students but with the added bonus of a higher maturity level, it sounds like any landlord’s dream tenant.

Time to Regenerate Kings Cross?

The Times reported last week that yet another attempt is being made to breathe some life into one of London’s most infamous areas. The area behind King’s Cross station.

It seems very interesting timing on the part of these brave developers, given the huge hole the construction industry has been in lately. The plan they have is set to transform the area and create as many as 2000 new homes. The extra exciting part of this project is that apparently 40 percent of these will be earmarked for first time home buyers.

As well as these new homes the development is also said to contain some ambitious plans for new shops, galleries and restaurants.

Several groups of people are putting the money forward for this huge project. King’s Cross Central Limited Partnership — a group composed of Argent Group, London and Continental Railways and DHL Supply Chain — has stumped up £150 million for Phase 1 of the project. The University of the Arts London, which will have a campus on the site for Central Saint Martins College of Art and Design, has provided a further £100 million.

The first of these new homes are said to be likely to be completed and up for sale in 2012.

This kind of thing has been tried before in this area, to no avail, but probably not on this scale. It would be great to see such a bold plan really take off.

Stamp Duty Must Be Reformed, Do You Agree?

More people have come out in support of the idea that if the government is serious about helping get things going again in the property market then they must make changes to stamp duty.

The British Property Federation believes this is especially important to the large scale investors, perhaps the most necessary investors of all.

Their reasoning for this thinking is fairly sound. A landlord who only purchases one property at a time usually ends up paying 1 percent in stamp duty. A large scale investor  who purchases say four properties in a block often ends up paying 4 percent which is a big difference when you are talking about sums of money that are likely to be high.

In what seems a fairly obvious solution the British Property Federation suggests the best idea may be to charge the investor separately for each property that is purchased at a lower rate rather than charging them 4 percent across the board.

Given that the government is on record as saying it wants to be proactive in helping us all recover from this recession this would seem a reasonable reform. It would be likely to help prevent a further decline in buy to let investments and let’s face it things are tough enough in some sections of this business as it is.

Sea Change in the Way We View Mortgages

In the not too distant past people had almost gotten used to the fact that their home was in great positive equity and were very much using that equity as part of their disposable income. Recent figures revealed at the G20 conference suggest that that attitude has now completely changed.

To give you a feel for how complete the turnaround is here are a few figures. In the final quarter of 2008 just over £8 billion pounds was repaid. Compare that to the figure of £1.8 billion in the second quarter of last year, the first quarter actually saw people withdrawing equity to the tune of 6.5 billion. Striking isn’t it?

People are clearly now seeing their home mortgage as a debt they want to be rid of as quickly as possible. Instead of ripping money out of their homes to fund their lifestyle they are now trying to put it back in. There is also the practical reality that in a lot of cases people find themselves in a position where there is no equity in their houses. They are left with little choice but to knuckle down to getting it paid off.

Whatever the thinking behind it it is clear that things have changed dramatically and all predictions indicate that this new attitude is likely to keep up for some time. An even bigger repayment figure is expected in the first quarter of 2009.

Some are suggesting that the property party is over.

Time’s Columnist Talks of ‘Green Shoots’

It was very heartening last week to see Times Columnist Lucy Denyer start speaking about green shoots in the economy and healthy ones at that. She cites the 19 percent rise in mortgage approvals as part of her evidence for this sunny news.

She even suggests that it may be enough for as to conclude that things may be on the up and up for the property market.

It seems that the caution being displayed by homeowners in terms of when to sell has caused a few supply and demand problems in certain desirable areas of the UK. And for once we are talking about there being more demand than supply, a very welcome change.

Of course it depends very much on the type of place you are selling and even more so in which area.

It appears Highgate is one area in London that is in demand. The article quotes Chris Underhill, a partner with Prickett & Ellis estate agency as saying “We have 1,600 buyers on our books and less than 0.5% of the housing stock in the area actually available,”
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Confusion Reigns in Property Market

We seem to be experiencing a period of extremely mixed signals in the property market at the moment.

While Nationwide reported an unexpected and extremely welcome rise in house prices last week, not three days later Halifax released figures that indicated we were far from out of the woods. Data from Nationwide showed house prices as rising 0.9 percent in March where as the Halifax’s data is a direct contradiction of that indicating a 1.9 percent drop over the exact same period.

Apparently the fact that each index uses a different sample of properties has caused the disparity in the figures. Due to the sharp fall we have experienced over the past twelve months, small differences can cause huge effect on the figures.

Perhaps the most sensible comment I have come across this week comes from Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank, he says “We may have seen the end to continual and significant price falls but I don’t think we are quite at the bottom, for the rest of the year I think we will see alternating months of growth and falls.”

That seems quite likely and though it is true that it is far too early for predictions of rebound prices, only the most deeply pessimistic of financial commentators are predicting that prices will continue to fall as sharply as they have been.

Are we in the middle of recovery? Probably not just yet. But is there cause for cautious optimism? Yeah I think there is.

Banks Demand More Money from Landlords

In what I find to be a simply stunning story the FT this week wrote that the NatWest bank was demanding that clients stump up us much as £1 million in a month to cover the fact that the equity in their portfolios had decreased dramatically because of falling house prices.

All this despite the fact that there was no suggestion that the landlords were likely to default on their payments.

Savills Private Finance, a prominent mortgage broker says it has seen quite a bit of evidence recently of the banks willingness to unexpectedly demand money from clients with high value property business’.

Melanie Bien, director of Savills, said this was a new trend as the buy-to-let market was not established in the previous market downturn in the early 1990s. “It is really a feature of the buy-to-let boom and credit crunch.”

The banks say that they are within their rights to do this as they have clauses in their contracts with these clients that state they can review agreements in certain circumstances one of which is if the bank believes there is not enough rental income being made on the property to cover the interest payments.

The really interesting thing is that people who have had the banks do this to them are denying this is even the case with their business. It all sounds like a bit of a worry to me.